Whither & Yon
Page 3

Is This an Across-the-Board Prediction?

No, it absolutely is not. Santa Fe is made up of micro-markets and then individual homes and lots within those segmented markets. Some properties will go up in value over the next few years. For years observers have overlooked the fact Santa Fe is a resort and thus most of our high incomes have to be generated from other parts of the country (either physically by being somewhere else, or now by using electronics to work somewhere else while living here). We feel it will become more and more like most other resorts in that the work force for the better jobs will be increasingly supplied by highly educated young people who'll live here for a few years. They will be extremely qualified and will take jobs from those who lack equal education.

The demographics of Santa Fe will change and as they do the town will be more like the rest of the country (or at least the resorts in the rest of the country). As we broaden our local culture we will appeal to a wider range of buyers. We have booming restaurant, hotel and resort businesses, all of which help real estate now and will continue to do so in the future.

As life in the U.S. urban areas becomes tougher or more subject to attacks of all kinds, we will have continued capital and intellectual flight from said cities. Therefore, destinations such as Santa Fe will receive these newcomers and, due to competition from these transplants, these fortunate towns will ask that newcomers have more and more money to afford the housing. Understand please that I know there are a large number of gentrifications taking place in major U.S. cities. On the horrible side, a terrorist attack will make many rethink urban life. Absent attacks, the upscale, gentrified, city life also makes people look more favorably on all we have here in Santa Fe when they think of great places for a second home.

The melting pot was a great concept when upward mobility took the pressure off differing cultures competing and living together. Now, this country has more workers than jobs. Since 1970, real income for most regular workers has declined over 20% at a time income for the educated few has soared. As we have seen with NAFTA, China, and the rest of Asia, and other off-shore ventures, the world is a very small place. Labor and raw materials can be assembled where they make the most economic sense and for many Americans this "sense" will be made outside the borders of our country. Santa Fe will be the beneficiary of the men and women who run those businesses elsewhere and who prefer to live in a resort. Essentially, Santa Fe will continue to turn into an enclave for the upper strata.

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